After a short-lived rally above $28,000 this week following Grayscale’s landmark court docket case victory in opposition to the US Securities and Trade Fee (SEC) over the conversion of GBTC right into a spot ETF, the value of BTC has as soon as once more settled across the $26,000 mark. This comes after yesterdays’ SEC’s choice to postpone all Bitcoin spot ETF selections for 45 days.
Famend crypto analyst, Rekt Capital, has weighed in on the scenario with a sequence of tweets that present perception into Bitcoin’s potential trajectory for the upcoming month. Because the analyst remarks, Bitcoin has registered a bearish month-to-month candle shut for the month of August because of yesterdays’ worth plunge.
Bitcoin Value Prediction For September 2023
In a sequence of tweets, Rekt Capital defined, “BTC closed beneath ~$27,150, confirming it as misplaced help. It’s attainable BTC may rebound into ~$27,150, possibly even upside wick past it this September. However that may probably be a reduction rally to substantiate ~$27,150 as new resistance earlier than dropping into the $23,000 area.
Traditionally, September has not been significantly form to Bitcoin, with the month recording the least variety of positive-returning months at simply two, and at the moment being on a 6-year negative-returning streak.
Rekt Capital delves deeper into this pattern, stating, “A often recurring draw back quantity for BTC within the month September is -7%. If BTC had been to drop -7% from present worth ranges this month, worth would retrace to ~$24,000.”
Nevertheless, based on the evaluation by the analyst, the following main month-to-month stage is sitting at ~$23,400. This means that worth possibly doesn’t cease at -7% if BTC can’t achieve new momentum. As a substitute, BTC may probably draw back wick -10% in whole to achieve that subsequent main month-to-month stage.
The analyst additional elaborated on the historic efficiency of Bitcoin in September, noting, “September – constructive or unfavorable month? Usually, we are likely to see a unfavorable month for BTC in September. Nevertheless, for probably the most half BTC sees single-digit drawdown in Septembers. 8 out of 10 of the previous Septembers have skilled draw back. Solely 2 months noticed small, single-digit positive factors within the month of September (+2% in 2015 and +6% in 2016).”
Worst Case Situation
Drawing parallels with earlier years, Rekt Capital highlighted that probably the most recurring drawdown in September has been a -7% dip, as noticed in 2017, 2020, and 2021. Nevertheless, he additionally identified that Bitcoin solely noticed double-digit retracement in 2019 (-13%) and in 2014 (-19%). The latter, being a bear market 12 months, won’t be the most effective comparability for 2023, which is shaping as much as be a bottoming out 12 months, akin to 2019 or 2015.
Addressing the looming query of one other potential crash in September, the analyst opined, “In 2019 BTC noticed a -13% retrace however we additionally must understand that BTC simply noticed certainly one of its worst-ever August drawdowns at -16%. It’s unlikely that Bitcoin would expertise extreme back-to-back drawdown each in August and now in September as properly.”
Concluding his evaluation, Rekt Capital shared his private forecast, “I feel a drawdown of round -7% to -10% September may moderately happen from present ranges. This is able to see worth drop to ~$24,000 – $23,000.”
Remarkably, there may be unlikely to be a Bitcoin spot ETF choice in September, which often is the largest catalyst for the market in the meanwhile. The subsequent deadlines for filings by Bitwise, BlackRock, Constancy and the others is October 16 and 17. Solely an motion by the SEC after the lost lawsuit in opposition to Grayscale may present a shock occasion. Nevertheless, there are at the moment no deadlines or statements from the SEC if and when they may perform the ruling.
At press time, BTC traded at $26,104.
Featured picture from Finextra Analysis, chart from TradingView.com
